June 29 Updates

Palladium ($PA) update from here:

Stop moved to $721.65 capping a gain ($4745 per contract), regardless.
$660 target still not achieved, chart indicates $664.65 target, today's LOD not filled.

Some updates to this post:
- Hogs signal never occurred, therefore no entry.
- Cotton, July contract expired, Dec. contract showed a good buy, but that got away from me.
- OJ missed, thank goodness, probably a loser.
- 6M TL BO worked, but also missed.

June 4 updates:
Oats trade was moving profitable, but target never achieved. Likely B/E trade.
Corn options trade had a very nice move, but didn't track exits closely enough.

June 4, 2015

Oats, July: (/ZON5) *25 days to exp.

Looking like a breakout of this downtrend line:

Long at reopen, June 3 @ 20:00p.m. $254.00

Risk of trade: below BO swing $242 = $600 per lot
Target #1 2:1 risk:reward = $278.00 ---  also confluence at 38.2% Fib. area.
Target #2 would be at 50%Fib, LVN on yearly profile.

Corn, July (ZCN5):
Could this be a potential TL resistance area, and a false BO?

Will revisit this on reopen, and cash open Friday. Hard to specify risk/reward using fut's... perhaps an options put vertical.

i.e. Long July 360/350 put spread, last 3.875 (risk = $193.75, reward = $306.25)
Like the idea of legging in 3.50 ($175 :: $325)
or 3.00 ($150 :: $350)
360 puts reopen 6.75B/7.50A  total risk = $337.5/$375
350 puts reopen 2.75B/3.375A total risk = $137.50/$168.75

Palladium Breakout

The breakout occurred yesterday, June 2. Basing the confirmation on the previous day's close, the reopen signal comes at 769.1 - target 660.00 on a measured move of the triangle depth.

Risk comes at top of triangle breakout ~ 25.9 pts (518 ticks = $2590)
Reward = 109.1 (2182 ticks = $10,910)

May 27 Ideas

Some daily chart views.

Lean Hogs:
Inverse H&S setting up. Watch for a close over 85.15.

Cotton No. 2:
Channel buy at 62.00, stop probably safe @ 61.00

FCOJA:
Trendline resistance near 120.00

Copper:
Channel buy ~ 2.7543 area.

Possibly ETF options play:

USD/MXN - 6M:
Trendline breakout idea:

Palladium:
Triangle BO.

Nasdaq:
Geometric extension target 4600.

CL Iron Condor

Thinking about selling an iron condor in the front month /CL options.

The logic: big, sweeping moves, bottom pickers kept getting clipped, week after week, almost day after day. Starting to think there will be a balancing range around $55 level. The only concern with the futures options is the length of the expiry, 26 days. May have to look at weekly USO options to consider an alternate, less risky strategy.

A view of the range (in pink) of the breakeven.

The trade:
SELL 3 Feb. 59.00 Calls,
BUY 3 Feb. 59.50 Calls,
SELL 3 Feb. 54.00 Puts,
BUY 3 Feb. 53.50 Puts,

Net credit of $.35.

View of the trade risk/reward:

August 21 Trade setups

 1.) Canadian Dollar looking like a perfect descending triangle pattern setting up.

Short BO below 9096.
OR keep an eye on potential TL resistance on 1hr.

2.) DX - or UUP ETF short possible if move over extended. Will await Yellen @ J-Hole.

3.) Corn (ZC) straddle? Dec. 370 cost $30.875 (may bid lower) $1537.50 per lot, b/e areas 400/339 (typo on chart image, not 400 Stradd.)

4.) Gasoline possible breaking out for a retrace? RB futures or UGA ETF.

5.) This is going to take a while to develop. TF Russell Futures in a big box. Watching for move out of rectangle.

Live Cattle

Live cattle had big town trend all year, with grains, could be time for big reversal.

A developing upward channel taken form on the daily chart. 1yr POC support so far (green solid horizontal line on VP) and 89VWAP/EMA and 50 day SMA support @ 126.255 but channel support meets HVAL & LVN @ 125.50.
The 1hr looks like could indicate smooth entries @ TL & 90day POC.