Friday, January 19, 2018

Euro Short

Strong trend. Bit of a H&S pattern, then a DT at a lower high. TL broke, would look for 2:1 risk/return short on a pullback to 50% Fib.
Risk $812.50. Reward on tgt 1 only = $812.50. TGT 1 + TGT 2 = $2031.25


Friday, January 12, 2018

Peso Long

Breakout to the upside of congestion box on 1HR chart:
Long .05169. Risk to .05063. Target #1: .05240. $355 gain. Target #2: .05311, $710 gain.

Update:

Both targets hit. +$355 + $710. = $1,065 gain.

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

$CAD long

Initial TL BO, then a retest of that TL, with a turn around in the 1hr close over .7880



Aug. 22 update:
After testing 61.8%Fib, would have to move trailing stops to breakeven here
August 22, 2nd update: Target #1 achieved.



Thursday, March 3, 2016

March 3

Dropped the ball, possibly on another coffee TL BO.
Will need to watch re-open and NY session in cotton to see if it can break over 56.75.
Watching for a test of TL on Yen.
Palladium has screamed higher. Daily continuous for thoughts on entry. 



Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Feb. 17, '16

April Lean Hogs (/HEJ6): 
Perfect ascending triangle breakout.
Long 71.15, measured target 74.40.
Also some confluence of resistance on daily chart there:
March Cotton (/CTH6):
Previous bearish channel where prices rallied and failed at 50%Fib & channel low levels. Now a new bullish channel is developing. Good place to get long around 59.50/59.40. Risk 58.95 = .55 ($550 on 2 lots).
May Coffee (/KCK6):
Triangle breakout potential here with upside measure target at 121.50/122, downside target 112.50/112.00.
May Sugar (/SBK6): 
Trendline breakout. Long 13.30 yesterday. Target 14.00, second target 14.35.
**starting to look like it's still balancing a bit sideways; needs support at 13.00 to save this over next 2 days, I suspect.

TOS GUI crashing... Will continue other thoughts, observations tomorrow morning.





Saturday, February 6, 2016

Feb. Thoughts, Part 2

Metals:
$GCJ6:
Been a strong rally. Hard to look for shorts, but upside references come on daily swings @ 1183.6, 1192.2
$SIH6:
Same thing with silver, but a nice channel is hinting at possible upside resistance near 15.50. 200 DMA could also get in the way nearby at 15.163
$HGH6:
Hovering between 50% & 61.8% Fibs, also with confluence near EMA and a previous level of resistance (shaded box), this could be ready to retrace higher back to 2.1085 - 2.1152 zone.
The trade here would be to buy above last swing 2.095 STP, 1:1 tgt = 2.111; 2:1 tgt = 2.127

$PLJ6:
Pretty solid 1 year downtrend line resistance coming up, any spike thru should be next resistance at EMA 939/940
$PAH6:
The last congestion box low was paired with w previous swing low on daily chart. Any further extention higher should be capped at that resistance level  520-525 as well as 50DMA
Shorter time frame a bit more choppy. Could be possible day trade if it clears 506 and gets to 513/515 before failing at Friday's high.
Skipping currency futures.

Grains:
$ZCH6:
Very congested and a breakdown could be juicy, or false BO. Will need to watch reaction  below 364
$ZWH6:
Also a bit congested; downside break below 463 may not have much room with 456 support nearby. Could be worth a look.
$ZS:
Stuck in a triangle; nothing here until breaks free of congestion inside.
Unless we get a solid break lower, which could be a nice 10pt scalp:
$ZLH6:
Nice looking channel. Would like to nibble long at a dip to EMA, 30.97 area.
$ZMH6:
Congested on 20d; looking at weekly chart, a break to new lows out of the congestion recently could open up 251 & 235/236 support.
$KCH6:
Waiting for Fibzone to become new support.
$SBH6:
A BO above 13.4 could open up 13.90-14.15


Feb. Thoughts, Part 1.

Some observations in a variety of contracts. First stock index futures.

$ESH6:
Sharp pullback this week found support Friday near some previous zones. Watching next week for a break below Friday low, next support at 1849-52 zone.
$NQH6:
The ugliest of the indexes here. Didn't quote reach that January swing low, but came darn close. A break below that (3983.50) would require looking bigger time frames to locate support.
Daily suggesting next levels of swing support come at 3958.75 & 3908.25.
$YMH6:
Not as ugly as previous, with lower support coming near 16000 & 15875:
$TFH6:
Finding nice support zones, where next level lower comes around 978

$NKDH6:
After previously finding support at the 61.8Fib and bouncing, now have broken thru and next support level at 78Fib has some solid confluence with a swing low 16270.
Onto Treasuries:
$ZTH6:
Hard to look at this and believe there was a rate hike in December.... Solid trending channel here.
Zooming in a bit, may have missed an opportunity to get long 109'105 off a previous swing zone 109'100. Will now watch resistance at 109'150/'155 for FRT of last lower high.
 $ZFH6:
Also has been trending nicely higher; support at EMA may have missed eyes on this one. Again, watching for a FRT between 121'085 - 121'107.
$ZNH6:
130'190 - 130'220 = FRT & resistance zones:
$ZBH6:
A bit stronger than shorter end of the curve, may need to give 164 area a chance to fail first. Thinking the pop over 163'22 could be false BO and trap longs.
$UBH6:
Same as above, as you can see the false BO back on Wed. Looking for over 169'01 and 169'23 area possibly to fade:
Onto Energy:
$CLH6:
A classic BO, then sputter pattern. But patient players wait for the retest of the trendline breakout for entry:
With that in mind, watching this triangle for continuation below the Friday BO; or possible pullback resistance at TL between 31.85-32.00
$NGH6:
Previous false BO gave longs too much hope. Tamer winter crushed them. Watching for the next box breakout, with possible resistance zones: 2.10, then 2.15
$RBH6:
Missed the TL resistance on that pullback thru previous support zones (shaded on left); Not much to do here, but continue to watch for possible FRT off lows under .9800
$HOH6:
Strongest of the energy markets. Nice trending upside. Will watch and wait for potential H&S top near 1.1000.
$BRNJ6:
Cannot trade Brent, but good to keep an eye on it. Also trending nicely as Brent/WTI spread ripped from negative the past few weeks. Watching triangle BO on this one, too.

Will continue with others later.