Thursday, March 3, 2016

March 3

Dropped the ball, possibly on another coffee TL BO.
Will need to watch re-open and NY session in cotton to see if it can break over 56.75.
Watching for a test of TL on Yen.
Palladium has screamed higher. Daily continuous for thoughts on entry. 



Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Feb. 17, '16

April Lean Hogs (/HEJ6): 
Perfect ascending triangle breakout.
Long 71.15, measured target 74.40.
Also some confluence of resistance on daily chart there:
March Cotton (/CTH6):
Previous bearish channel where prices rallied and failed at 50%Fib & channel low levels. Now a new bullish channel is developing. Good place to get long around 59.50/59.40. Risk 58.95 = .55 ($550 on 2 lots).
May Coffee (/KCK6):
Triangle breakout potential here with upside measure target at 121.50/122, downside target 112.50/112.00.
May Sugar (/SBK6): 
Trendline breakout. Long 13.30 yesterday. Target 14.00, second target 14.35.
**starting to look like it's still balancing a bit sideways; needs support at 13.00 to save this over next 2 days, I suspect.

TOS GUI crashing... Will continue other thoughts, observations tomorrow morning.





Saturday, February 6, 2016

Feb. Thoughts, Part 2

Metals:
$GCJ6:
Been a strong rally. Hard to look for shorts, but upside references come on daily swings @ 1183.6, 1192.2
$SIH6:
Same thing with silver, but a nice channel is hinting at possible upside resistance near 15.50. 200 DMA could also get in the way nearby at 15.163
$HGH6:
Hovering between 50% & 61.8% Fibs, also with confluence near EMA and a previous level of resistance (shaded box), this could be ready to retrace higher back to 2.1085 - 2.1152 zone.
The trade here would be to buy above last swing 2.095 STP, 1:1 tgt = 2.111; 2:1 tgt = 2.127

$PLJ6:
Pretty solid 1 year downtrend line resistance coming up, any spike thru should be next resistance at EMA 939/940
$PAH6:
The last congestion box low was paired with w previous swing low on daily chart. Any further extention higher should be capped at that resistance level  520-525 as well as 50DMA
Shorter time frame a bit more choppy. Could be possible day trade if it clears 506 and gets to 513/515 before failing at Friday's high.
Skipping currency futures.

Grains:
$ZCH6:
Very congested and a breakdown could be juicy, or false BO. Will need to watch reaction  below 364
$ZWH6:
Also a bit congested; downside break below 463 may not have much room with 456 support nearby. Could be worth a look.
$ZS:
Stuck in a triangle; nothing here until breaks free of congestion inside.
Unless we get a solid break lower, which could be a nice 10pt scalp:
$ZLH6:
Nice looking channel. Would like to nibble long at a dip to EMA, 30.97 area.
$ZMH6:
Congested on 20d; looking at weekly chart, a break to new lows out of the congestion recently could open up 251 & 235/236 support.
$KCH6:
Waiting for Fibzone to become new support.
$SBH6:
A BO above 13.4 could open up 13.90-14.15


Feb. Thoughts, Part 1.

Some observations in a variety of contracts. First stock index futures.

$ESH6:
Sharp pullback this week found support Friday near some previous zones. Watching next week for a break below Friday low, next support at 1849-52 zone.
$NQH6:
The ugliest of the indexes here. Didn't quote reach that January swing low, but came darn close. A break below that (3983.50) would require looking bigger time frames to locate support.
Daily suggesting next levels of swing support come at 3958.75 & 3908.25.
$YMH6:
Not as ugly as previous, with lower support coming near 16000 & 15875:
$TFH6:
Finding nice support zones, where next level lower comes around 978

$NKDH6:
After previously finding support at the 61.8Fib and bouncing, now have broken thru and next support level at 78Fib has some solid confluence with a swing low 16270.
Onto Treasuries:
$ZTH6:
Hard to look at this and believe there was a rate hike in December.... Solid trending channel here.
Zooming in a bit, may have missed an opportunity to get long 109'105 off a previous swing zone 109'100. Will now watch resistance at 109'150/'155 for FRT of last lower high.
 $ZFH6:
Also has been trending nicely higher; support at EMA may have missed eyes on this one. Again, watching for a FRT between 121'085 - 121'107.
$ZNH6:
130'190 - 130'220 = FRT & resistance zones:
$ZBH6:
A bit stronger than shorter end of the curve, may need to give 164 area a chance to fail first. Thinking the pop over 163'22 could be false BO and trap longs.
$UBH6:
Same as above, as you can see the false BO back on Wed. Looking for over 169'01 and 169'23 area possibly to fade:
Onto Energy:
$CLH6:
A classic BO, then sputter pattern. But patient players wait for the retest of the trendline breakout for entry:
With that in mind, watching this triangle for continuation below the Friday BO; or possible pullback resistance at TL between 31.85-32.00
$NGH6:
Previous false BO gave longs too much hope. Tamer winter crushed them. Watching for the next box breakout, with possible resistance zones: 2.10, then 2.15
$RBH6:
Missed the TL resistance on that pullback thru previous support zones (shaded on left); Not much to do here, but continue to watch for possible FRT off lows under .9800
$HOH6:
Strongest of the energy markets. Nice trending upside. Will watch and wait for potential H&S top near 1.1000.
$BRNJ6:
Cannot trade Brent, but good to keep an eye on it. Also trending nicely as Brent/WTI spread ripped from negative the past few weeks. Watching triangle BO on this one, too.

Will continue with others later.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

RBOB

Nice looking channel working to the downside now.
Going to watch a rebound to the top of the channel (which could coincide with crude bounce - starting to feel a bit stretched on crude now) and that TOC also nice confluence with previous swing high of 1.7700-1.7750 zone. If it rips quickly to 1.8000, that would be an ideal short area. Will keep an eye open.

8/20 update:

We have arrived.
 Long futures 1.531, stop under that swing, 1.50

 That's the continuous contract view... here's Oct (V) daily chart: 
 Long 1.385, stop 1.30; risk = $2,100, target 1.45, gain = $4,200.
A closer look:

Option trade using UGA ETF:



Silver Short

Clearly a big downtrend. Broke out of the triangle, which I missed, and has now retested that resistance level and Friday was an outside bar on the daily. Each previous swing high OB signal resulted in a solid move to the downside (as has the buy signal).

Trade, short Sept Silver 15.225, risk to 15.60 = -.375 or 75ticks. A 2:1 target comes in just off recent swing lows  14.475 (shown dashed line) and further downside could open up below swing low and 52 week lows. Risk $1875, Profit = $3750.

8/20 update: Goes +$5K next day after entry!!
Snaps back past b/e pretty quickly as stocks tumble and PM's catch a big bid!


KC Long

Here was the coffee trade I never posted.

L /KCU5 off the bottom of this channel with a target to the top of the channel:
Long the futures ~ 122.15
But the JO options trade was the concept I put on:
  • Buy JO Aug 21call, Sell JO Aug 22 call vertical for $.20 Net debit = $200.
 When price reached top of channel, shown here:
  •  Sell vertical options spread for $.75, on 10 lots a net gain of $550. 

Futures gain much greater, of course!