Copper Short

Late to post. Copper short finally fired off at 5:05 a.m.

Had marked the entry 2.869:

Entry short 2.869
Risk 2.947. $1950/lot
Target 2.724. $3625/lot

Position Updates.

Sadly, the beans trade was profitable, but management towards target missed by only ONE tick!!! That is trading, folks.

Net result: Breakeven.

Wheat, also a breakeven result, but did show a possible short entry. Again, failure to act on that against an existing long position was a mistake. Several methods could have been used: short a longer dated future contract; short a call spread (or buy a put spread); or buy puts.

Net result: Breakeven. No options, no other futures trade short.

Nat Gas continues to chug ahead. BUT...

Some developing RSI divergence could be pointing to a reversal. Stop raised to 2.05. A possible hedge here is to take a bearish options play, either buying puts or a bearish options spread (selling call spread or buying a put spread - for defined risk/reward.) Nothing jumped out upon analysis yesterday afternoon, so will await EIA data today to determine if a hedge is a better idea.

Swissie (6S futures), continues to remain strong.

BUT, like many assets that have rallied strong recently, there is a developing RSI divergence here. There are no options on these futures, and dated futures contracts are too thin for a hedge. Stop raised. 

Gold:

 Also, remaining strong. Firmly above $2000 now. Stop has been adjusted, while some mild RSI divergence is developing, over the next trading session, I will determine if it's time to adjust stop even higher.

Copper:

There was a triangle pattern break. I did not enter, was fortunate to have been distracted at the time. A second attempt may be in the works, but the technical pattern growing somewhat muddled. There could be a decent 'risk-off' trade across a variety of asset classes as the bullish bias has been pressing consistently for weeks, even months now and there could be an opportunity for them to take a breather. Wait and watch mode on this one.

Beans Long. Updates.

November Soybeans Long.

Entry, buy @ 884.00

Stop @ 876.00. Risk +$400/lot.

Target @ 900.00. Potential gain = $800/lot.

Gold update:

Stop adjusted higher.

Swissie (6S futures) update:

Stop adjusted to 1.08. Some RSI divergence at new highs a concerning spot for a potential reversal. 

Natty update: 

Also some RSI divergence developing. Stop still at breakeven on remaining.

Wheat update: 

Still awaiting a fill, stop @ breakeven. 

Possible set up in copper developing. 

Large rally: 

Triangle balancing zone, breakout up or down could get some nice directional action: 

Natty Long *update*

Target one achieved. Conservative players move stop to breakeven.

Natty Long (plus other updates)

Have not posted here in a long time. Swing trade set-up for Sep. Natty.

LONG $1.70.
STOP $1.63 = risk per lot $700.
TGT #1 $1.84 = $1400.
(If using multiples, TGT #2 $1.91 = $2100.)

I marked $1.92 on image as more optimal exit target at a previous level of resistance. Ideally, if price moves thru $1.91, then trail to $1.91 awaiting $1.92 target.

Seasonality could assist the technical setup here:

Updates (on positions not shared in any prior blog posts):

Aug Live Cattle - loss.

Swissie Long, trail at b/e.

Wheat, waiting for TGT #1; stops moved to B/E.

Gold, TGT 1 & 2 hit, trailing at B/E, waiting to move stop behind ~$1800.

On the radar;
Euro RSI divergence:

5 year, tight coil for volatility spike up or down.

Swissie Breakout

Here's the break out of range on the Swissie on the reopen last night.

Long 1.0496, first target 1.0598.

2:1 risk reward = $637.50 risk, to profit $1275 per contract.

Euro Short

Strong trend. Bit of a H&S pattern, then a DT at a lower high. TL broke, would look for 2:1 risk/return short on a pullback to 50% Fib.

Risk $812.50. Reward on tgt 1 only = $812.50. TGT 1 + TGT 2 = $2031.25