Monday, December 31, 2012

Dec. 28

Reloaded 6J long in evening session off S2 pivot. NF on target 1 @ PP.
Silver in a fairly tight balancing area. Considering a SLV Feb. 29 straddle @ $2.16, implying a 7% move in either direction.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Dec. 27 - 6J Long Idea, Silver, 6E, CT, HE updates.

Without any true indicators or levels of support, considering a long on 6J. Perhaps for just a scalp, but I believe that it has been heavily oversold the past several weeks, particularly the past few days. Could get a solid bounce to close the holiday gap. More QE from BOJ pressuring the currency.
 3yr, weekly chart VAL & swing low highlighted.
5:50 a.m. - Bidding .011665 for 1. May consider a leg-in trade. Not chasing @ current price .011670.
6:01 a.m. - Filled on 1. If stop placed @ recent swing low = 13t ($162.50) If only taking scalp target of swing high of .011691 = 26t trade ($325) - oe ON swing high .011706 = 41t ($512.50). Looking for .011655 for 2nd half of leg-in.
2 p.m. update: 2nd half filled. Took some serious heat. Opportunity on pop to bail b/e or + a couple ticks on both. Still long 2. Scalped 8t ($100) intra-day on TAT.

Would be a strong buyer of silver @ $28.00 levels. Breakout level from $26 low of year and June POC $28.35. Would also be confluence w/ 78% 'line in the sand' retracement level.
6E moving back into 1yr VAH level @ .13301. Would consider a short, but this could be the time it busts through as it is the third attempt.
2 p.m. update: never reached those entry levels. Flushed w/ ES intra-day.
Some serious flush on CT. Stop management poor on my part. Flat +414t ($2070.)
May have missed the HE short entry. (Entry @ 87.5 - arrow.)

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Dec. 26

Still equity markets are riddled with the fiscal cliff uncertainty. Volume and participation, post-holiday, is very light. Thursday's economic data could lead to some activity; jobless claims @ 8:30 a.m., consumer confidence and new home sales @ 10 a.m.

Today's views:
ES - Dec. 90d POC @ 1412. Missed 'the dip' @ 1414.
NQ - Rangebound between Dec. VAH & VAL. May begin looking for uturn off VAL.
YM - No update
TF - Short still working out, bailed too soon. 1hr ATR stop still not violated. DT rejection near 90d VAH. Possible re-entry on rallies to 844.
ZN - No update. Finding range near 90d VAL & Dec. VAL
ZB - Looking for a pullback to 90d VAL ~ 146'20
ZF - Still rangebound between 1yr VAH & POC
CL - Rising channel on hourly; Wedge & trendline resist on 1yr. A short is tempting, but only against channel resist. A pullback to 90d POC (also 1yr POC) good possibility.
NG - No update. Strong channel on 1yr, pullback to Dec. VAL (3.27) is area of interest for longs.
RB - No update at these levels. 3.0426 1yr VAH of interest as resistance. (2.9148 on hourly)
HO - No update. 3.0678 first test of resist on hourly POC.
GC - 1630 = 61.8% retracement of May - Sep move. Only level of interest as price beginning to balance @ 50% retrace levels.
SI - 29.675 = 61.8% retrace - similar thoughts as gold.
HG - No update
PL - No update.
PA - Watching 701 levels as hourly VAH and multiple top levels.
6E - No update. 1.3300 1yr VAH, possible resist.
6A - 1.028 hourly VAH & swing low supt from Nov.
6B - No update.
6J - Falling knife; no update.
6C - No update.
6S - 1yr POC moved higher to 1.0916. VAH @ 1.1013... possible resist level.
6M - Flat. Continues lower; no update. Erratic looking price action during holiday trade session.
6N - No update.
DX - Bounced off Dec. VAL and holding @ Dec & 90d POCs.
ZC - No update.
ZW - No update.
ZS - Nov POC = 1411.5, a good level between that and 78.6% retrace of Nov - Dec rally between 1401 & 1411. (Last - 1417...)
ZL - No update.
ZM - No update.
ZO - Declining channel, looking to sell rallies.
SB - No update.
OJ - No update.
KC - No update. Two nice bounces off Dec. VAL. Will key in again at those levels ~ 144 - 143.
CT - Still long 1. Pushing thru 90d VAH testing some major swing peaks from Oct, Aug & June over 78. Rising channel still leaves a lot of upside on hourly.
CC - No update. Falling knife. Swing lows from Nov provided no support @ 2328
LE - 1hr VAH possible building balancing area. Shorts = high risk.
GF - No update.
HE - Similar pattern on /LE. 87.60 has been developing as possible DT & resist. zone. Also 61.8% retrace from Jun - Sep drop. 1yr POC = 85.80, which could be a good scalp target short term. Dec. hourly POC 85.50. On radar over next 2 days. Reversal signal fired while away from screen @ 87.5 Watching 2nd bar for entry tomorrow. 

LBS - No update. Screaming higher. High risk shorts against no R levels.
NKD - No update. Gapping higher on lower Yen (6J) - high risk shorts.

Friday, December 21, 2012

Futures List

Here is the list of futures contracts I will be following with daily updates:

/ES - E-mini S&P 500 Index
/NQ - E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index
/YM - Mini Dow Jones Industrials Average
/TF - Russell 2000 Index Mini-size
/ZN - 10 year US Treasury Note
/ZB - 30 year US Treasury Bond
/ZF - 5 year US Treasury Note
/CL - Light Sweet Crude Oil
/NG - Natural Gas
/RB - RBOB Gasoline
/HO - Heating Oil
/GC - Gold
/SI - Silver
/HG - Copper
/PL - Platinum
/PA - Palladium
/6E - Euro FX
/6A - Australian Dollar
/6B - British Pound
/6J - Japanese Yen
/6C - Candadian Dollar
/6S - Swiss Franc
/6M - Mexican Peso
/6N - New Zealand Dollar
/DX - US Dollar Index
/ZC - Corn
/ZW - Wheat
/ZS - Soybeans
/ZL - Soybean Oil
/ZM - Soybean Meal
/ZO - Oats
/SB - Sugar #11 (World)
/OJ - Frozen Concentrated OJ (FCOJ-A)
/KC - Coffee 'C'
/CT - Cotton #2
/CC - Cocoa
/LE - Live Cattle
/GF - Feeder Cattle
/HE - Lean Hog
/LBS - Random Length Lumber
/NKD - Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index

Dec. 20 - 6M short

Managed to get 1 part of leg in on 6M short.
Triple top formed below 1yr VAH and could not penetrate old swing highs from Oct. 5.
On hourly chart, 90day VAH level a good place to leg in on 1 lot @ .07790, was offering 2nd (now cancelled) higher at Dec. VAH .07810 +28t $350 as of 5a.m. Trading near 90d POC.

Flat +32ticks, +$400. No runner to let it continue. Price continued to 50% retracement levels nearly.