Sunday, August 16, 2015


Nice looking channel working to the downside now.
Going to watch a rebound to the top of the channel (which could coincide with crude bounce - starting to feel a bit stretched on crude now) and that TOC also nice confluence with previous swing high of 1.7700-1.7750 zone. If it rips quickly to 1.8000, that would be an ideal short area. Will keep an eye open.

8/20 update:

We have arrived.
 Long futures 1.531, stop under that swing, 1.50

 That's the continuous contract view... here's Oct (V) daily chart: 
 Long 1.385, stop 1.30; risk = $2,100, target 1.45, gain = $4,200.
A closer look:

Option trade using UGA ETF:

Silver Short

Clearly a big downtrend. Broke out of the triangle, which I missed, and has now retested that resistance level and Friday was an outside bar on the daily. Each previous swing high OB signal resulted in a solid move to the downside (as has the buy signal).

Trade, short Sept Silver 15.225, risk to 15.60 = -.375 or 75ticks. A 2:1 target comes in just off recent swing lows  14.475 (shown dashed line) and further downside could open up below swing low and 52 week lows. Risk $1875, Profit = $3750.

8/20 update: Goes +$5K next day after entry!!
Snaps back past b/e pretty quickly as stocks tumble and PM's catch a big bid!

KC Long

Here was the coffee trade I never posted.

L /KCU5 off the bottom of this channel with a target to the top of the channel:
Long the futures ~ 122.15
But the JO options trade was the concept I put on:
  • Buy JO Aug 21call, Sell JO Aug 22 call vertical for $.20 Net debit = $200.
 When price reached top of channel, shown here:
  •  Sell vertical options spread for $.75, on 10 lots a net gain of $550. 

Futures gain much greater, of course!