June 4, 2015

Oats, July: (/ZON5) *25 days to exp.

Looking like a breakout of this downtrend line:

Long at reopen, June 3 @ 20:00p.m. $254.00

Risk of trade: below BO swing $242 = $600 per lot
Target #1 2:1 risk:reward = $278.00 ---  also confluence at 38.2% Fib. area.
Target #2 would be at 50%Fib, LVN on yearly profile.

Corn, July (ZCN5):
Could this be a potential TL resistance area, and a false BO?

Will revisit this on reopen, and cash open Friday. Hard to specify risk/reward using fut's... perhaps an options put vertical.

i.e. Long July 360/350 put spread, last 3.875 (risk = $193.75, reward = $306.25)
Like the idea of legging in 3.50 ($175 :: $325)
or 3.00 ($150 :: $350)
360 puts reopen 6.75B/7.50A  total risk = $337.5/$375
350 puts reopen 2.75B/3.375A total risk = $137.50/$168.75