Monday, June 29, 2015

June 29 Updates

Palladium ($PA) update from here:
Stop moved to $721.65 capping a gain ($4745 per contract), regardless.
$660 target still not achieved, chart indicates $664.65 target, today's LOD not filled.

Some updates to this post:
- Hogs signal never occurred, therefore no entry.
- Cotton, July contract expired, Dec. contract showed a good buy, but that got away from me.
- OJ missed, thank goodness, probably a loser.
- 6M TL BO worked, but also missed.

June 4 updates:
Oats trade was moving profitable, but target never achieved. Likely B/E trade.
Corn options trade had a very nice move, but didn't track exits closely enough.




Thursday, June 4, 2015

June 4, 2015

Oats, July: (/ZON5) *25 days to exp.

Looking like a breakout of this downtrend line:
Long at reopen, June 3 @ 20:00p.m. $254.00

Risk of trade: below BO swing $242 = $600 per lot
Target #1 2:1 risk:reward = $278.00 ---  also confluence at 38.2% Fib. area.
Target #2 would be at 50%Fib, LVN on yearly profile.

Corn, July (ZCN5):
Could this be a potential TL resistance area, and a false BO?
Will revisit this on reopen, and cash open Friday. Hard to specify risk/reward using fut's... perhaps an options put vertical.

i.e. Long July 360/350 put spread, last 3.875 (risk = $193.75, reward = $306.25)
Like the idea of legging in 3.50 ($175 :: $325)
or 3.00 ($150 :: $350)
360 puts reopen 6.75B/7.50A  total risk = $337.5/$375
350 puts reopen 2.75B/3.375A total risk = $137.50/$168.75









Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Palladium Breakout

The breakout occurred yesterday, June 2. Basing the confirmation on the previous day's close, the reopen signal comes at 769.1 - target 660.00 on a measured move of the triangle depth.

Risk comes at top of triangle breakout ~ 25.9 pts (518 ticks = $2590)
Reward = 109.1 (2182 ticks = $10,910)