Sunday, August 16, 2015


Nice looking channel working to the downside now.
Going to watch a rebound to the top of the channel (which could coincide with crude bounce - starting to feel a bit stretched on crude now) and that TOC also nice confluence with previous swing high of 1.7700-1.7750 zone. If it rips quickly to 1.8000, that would be an ideal short area. Will keep an eye open.

8/20 update:

We have arrived.
 Long futures 1.531, stop under that swing, 1.50

 That's the continuous contract view... here's Oct (V) daily chart: 
 Long 1.385, stop 1.30; risk = $2,100, target 1.45, gain = $4,200.
A closer look:

Option trade using UGA ETF:

Silver Short

Clearly a big downtrend. Broke out of the triangle, which I missed, and has now retested that resistance level and Friday was an outside bar on the daily. Each previous swing high OB signal resulted in a solid move to the downside (as has the buy signal).

Trade, short Sept Silver 15.225, risk to 15.60 = -.375 or 75ticks. A 2:1 target comes in just off recent swing lows  14.475 (shown dashed line) and further downside could open up below swing low and 52 week lows. Risk $1875, Profit = $3750.

8/20 update: Goes +$5K next day after entry!!
Snaps back past b/e pretty quickly as stocks tumble and PM's catch a big bid!

KC Long

Here was the coffee trade I never posted.

L /KCU5 off the bottom of this channel with a target to the top of the channel:
Long the futures ~ 122.15
But the JO options trade was the concept I put on:
  • Buy JO Aug 21call, Sell JO Aug 22 call vertical for $.20 Net debit = $200.
 When price reached top of channel, shown here:
  •  Sell vertical options spread for $.75, on 10 lots a net gain of $550. 

Futures gain much greater, of course!

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Crude Options, 2nd update; Palladium

After updating yesterday's slide today saw another big drop 40t from 50.11 61.8% Fib tgt, saw CL options go $3.00 bid, would have peeled off final one there.

$830 cost X 4 = $3320 cost of trade.
Sell 2 @ $1.62 = $1580 profit
Sell 3rd @ $2.25 = $1420 profit
Unload 4h @ $3.00 = $2170 profit
Total profit = $5170 gain, not including commissions.

Further update: $PA target achieved.

Monday, July 6, 2015

Crude update

Well, from last post:

Options spreads went berserk today. Mentioned on chat about $1.62 on CL spreads,  USO spreads open $.57.

Peeling off some profits, CL options at $1.62 = $790 per contract, USO at $23 per contract.

As of time of this writing, CL option spread went $2.25 bid, would peel off 1 more $1420 profit; USO @ $.69

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Crude Pullback

Crude WTI $CLQ5
Price certainly boxed in as visible here:
A break out of this, to lower Fib regions seems logical IF a continuation higher is in the cards to $75.
Two ways to play this idea
1. Long /CLU5 vertical 55/50 Put spread for $.83, $830 per contract. Risk/Reward here:
2. Long Aug. USO vertical 19.50/18.50 put spread for $.34, $34 per contract. Risk/Reward here:

Monday, June 29, 2015

June 29 Updates

Palladium ($PA) update from here:
Stop moved to $721.65 capping a gain ($4745 per contract), regardless.
$660 target still not achieved, chart indicates $664.65 target, today's LOD not filled.

Some updates to this post:
- Hogs signal never occurred, therefore no entry.
- Cotton, July contract expired, Dec. contract showed a good buy, but that got away from me.
- OJ missed, thank goodness, probably a loser.
- 6M TL BO worked, but also missed.

June 4 updates:
Oats trade was moving profitable, but target never achieved. Likely B/E trade.
Corn options trade had a very nice move, but didn't track exits closely enough.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

June 4, 2015

Oats, July: (/ZON5) *25 days to exp.

Looking like a breakout of this downtrend line:
Long at reopen, June 3 @ 20:00p.m. $254.00

Risk of trade: below BO swing $242 = $600 per lot
Target #1 2:1 risk:reward = $278.00 ---  also confluence at 38.2% Fib. area.
Target #2 would be at 50%Fib, LVN on yearly profile.

Corn, July (ZCN5):
Could this be a potential TL resistance area, and a false BO?
Will revisit this on reopen, and cash open Friday. Hard to specify risk/reward using fut's... perhaps an options put vertical.

i.e. Long July 360/350 put spread, last 3.875 (risk = $193.75, reward = $306.25)
Like the idea of legging in 3.50 ($175 :: $325)
or 3.00 ($150 :: $350)
360 puts reopen 6.75B/7.50A  total risk = $337.5/$375
350 puts reopen 2.75B/3.375A total risk = $137.50/$168.75

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Palladium Breakout

The breakout occurred yesterday, June 2. Basing the confirmation on the previous day's close, the reopen signal comes at 769.1 - target 660.00 on a measured move of the triangle depth.

Risk comes at top of triangle breakout ~ 25.9 pts (518 ticks = $2590)
Reward = 109.1 (2182 ticks = $10,910)

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

May 27 Ideas

Some daily chart views.

Lean Hogs:
Inverse H&S setting up. Watch for a close over 85.15.
Cotton No. 2:
Channel buy at 62.00, stop probably safe @ 61.00
Trendline resistance near 120.00
Channel buy ~ 2.7543 area.
Possibly ETF options play:
Trendline breakout idea:
Triangle BO.
Geometric extension target 4600.