Feb. Thoughts, Part 1.

Some observations in a variety of contracts. First stock index futures.

$ESH6:
Sharp pullback this week found support Friday near some previous zones. Watching next week for a break below Friday low, next support at 1849-52 zone.

$NQH6:
The ugliest of the indexes here. Didn't quote reach that January swing low, but came darn close. A break below that (3983.50) would require looking bigger time frames to locate support.

Daily suggesting next levels of swing support come at 3958.75 & 3908.25.

$YMH6:
Not as ugly as previous, with lower support coming near 16000 & 15875:

$TFH6:
Finding nice support zones, where next level lower comes around 978

$NKDH6:
After previously finding support at the 61.8Fib and bouncing, now have broken thru and next support level at 78Fib has some solid confluence with a swing low 16270.

Onto Treasuries:
$ZTH6:
Hard to look at this and believe there was a rate hike in December.... Solid trending channel here.

Zooming in a bit, may have missed an opportunity to get long 109'105 off a previous swing zone 109'100. Will now watch resistance at 109'150/'155 for FRT of last lower high.

 $ZFH6:
Also has been trending nicely higher; support at EMA may have missed eyes on this one. Again, watching for a FRT between 121'085 - 121'107.

$ZNH6:
130'190 - 130'220 = FRT & resistance zones:

$ZBH6:
A bit stronger than shorter end of the curve, may need to give 164 area a chance to fail first. Thinking the pop over 163'22 could be false BO and trap longs.

$UBH6:
Same as above, as you can see the false BO back on Wed. Looking for over 169'01 and 169'23 area possibly to fade:

Onto Energy:
$CLH6:
A classic BO, then sputter pattern. But patient players wait for the retest of the trendline breakout for entry:

With that in mind, watching this triangle for continuation below the Friday BO; or possible pullback resistance at TL between 31.85-32.00

$NGH6:
Previous false BO gave longs too much hope. Tamer winter crushed them. Watching for the next box breakout, with possible resistance zones: 2.10, then 2.15

$RBH6:
Missed the TL resistance on that pullback thru previous support zones (shaded on left); Not much to do here, but continue to watch for possible FRT off lows under .9800

$HOH6:
Strongest of the energy markets. Nice trending upside. Will watch and wait for potential H&S top near 1.1000.

$BRNJ6:
Cannot trade Brent, but good to keep an eye on it. Also trending nicely as Brent/WTI spread ripped from negative the past few weeks. Watching triangle BO on this one, too.

Will continue with others later.

RBOB

Nice looking channel working to the downside now.

Going to watch a rebound to the top of the channel (which could coincide with crude bounce - starting to feel a bit stretched on crude now) and that TOC also nice confluence with previous swing high of 1.7700-1.7750 zone. If it rips quickly to 1.8000, that would be an ideal short area. Will keep an eye open.

8/20 update:

We have arrived.

 Long futures 1.531, stop under that swing, 1.50

 That's the continuous contract view... here's Oct (V) daily chart: 

 Long 1.385, stop 1.30; risk = $2,100, target 1.45, gain = $4,200.
A closer look:

Option trade using UGA ETF:

Silver Short

Clearly a big downtrend. Broke out of the triangle, which I missed, and has now retested that resistance level and Friday was an outside bar on the daily. Each previous swing high OB signal resulted in a solid move to the downside (as has the buy signal).

Trade, short Sept Silver 15.225, risk to 15.60 = -.375 or 75ticks. A 2:1 target comes in just off recent swing lows  14.475 (shown dashed line) and further downside could open up below swing low and 52 week lows. Risk $1875, Profit = $3750.

8/20 update: Goes +$5K next day after entry!!

Snaps back past b/e pretty quickly as stocks tumble and PM's catch a big bid!

KC Long

Here was the coffee trade I never posted.

L /KCU5 off the bottom of this channel with a target to the top of the channel:

Long the futures ~ 122.15
But the JO options trade was the concept I put on:

• Buy JO Aug 21call, Sell JO Aug 22 call vertical for $.20 Net debit = $200.

 When price reached top of channel, shown here:

•  Sell vertical options spread for $.75, on 10 lots a net gain of $550. 

Futures gain much greater, of course!

Crude Options, 2nd update; Palladium

After updating yesterday's slide http://justbuythefuckingdip.blogspot.com/2015/07/crude-update.html today saw another big drop 40t from 50.11 61.8% Fib tgt, saw CL options go $3.00 bid, would have peeled off final one there.

$830 cost X 4 = $3320 cost of trade.
Sell 2 @ $1.62 = $1580 profit
Sell 3rd @ $2.25 = $1420 profit
Unload 4h @ $3.00 = $2170 profit
Total profit = $5170 gain, not including commissions.

Further update: $PA target achieved. http://justbuythefuckingdip.blogspot.com/2015/06/palladium-breakout.html

Crude update

Well, from last post: http://justbuythefuckingdip.blogspot.com/2015/07/crude-pullback.html

Options spreads went berserk today. Mentioned on chat about $1.62 on CL spreads,  USO spreads open $.57.

Peeling off some profits, CL options at $1.62 = $790 per contract, USO at $23 per contract.

As of time of this writing, CL option spread went $2.25 bid, would peel off 1 more $1420 profit; USO @ $.69

Crude Pullback

Crude WTI $CLQ5
Price certainly boxed in as visible here:

A break out of this, to lower Fib regions seems logical IF a continuation higher is in the cards to $75.
Two ways to play this idea
1. Long /CLU5 vertical 55/50 Put spread for $.83, $830 per contract. Risk/Reward here:

2. Long Aug. USO vertical 19.50/18.50 put spread for $.34, $34 per contract. Risk/Reward here: