Saturday, February 6, 2016

Feb. Thoughts, Part 1.

Some observations in a variety of contracts. First stock index futures.

Sharp pullback this week found support Friday near some previous zones. Watching next week for a break below Friday low, next support at 1849-52 zone.
The ugliest of the indexes here. Didn't quote reach that January swing low, but came darn close. A break below that (3983.50) would require looking bigger time frames to locate support.
Daily suggesting next levels of swing support come at 3958.75 & 3908.25.
Not as ugly as previous, with lower support coming near 16000 & 15875:
Finding nice support zones, where next level lower comes around 978

After previously finding support at the 61.8Fib and bouncing, now have broken thru and next support level at 78Fib has some solid confluence with a swing low 16270.
Onto Treasuries:
Hard to look at this and believe there was a rate hike in December.... Solid trending channel here.
Zooming in a bit, may have missed an opportunity to get long 109'105 off a previous swing zone 109'100. Will now watch resistance at 109'150/'155 for FRT of last lower high.
Also has been trending nicely higher; support at EMA may have missed eyes on this one. Again, watching for a FRT between 121'085 - 121'107.
130'190 - 130'220 = FRT & resistance zones:
A bit stronger than shorter end of the curve, may need to give 164 area a chance to fail first. Thinking the pop over 163'22 could be false BO and trap longs.
Same as above, as you can see the false BO back on Wed. Looking for over 169'01 and 169'23 area possibly to fade:
Onto Energy:
A classic BO, then sputter pattern. But patient players wait for the retest of the trendline breakout for entry:
With that in mind, watching this triangle for continuation below the Friday BO; or possible pullback resistance at TL between 31.85-32.00
Previous false BO gave longs too much hope. Tamer winter crushed them. Watching for the next box breakout, with possible resistance zones: 2.10, then 2.15
Missed the TL resistance on that pullback thru previous support zones (shaded on left); Not much to do here, but continue to watch for possible FRT off lows under .9800
Strongest of the energy markets. Nice trending upside. Will watch and wait for potential H&S top near 1.1000.
Cannot trade Brent, but good to keep an eye on it. Also trending nicely as Brent/WTI spread ripped from negative the past few weeks. Watching triangle BO on this one, too.

Will continue with others later.

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