Sunday, August 18, 2013

August 16, 2013 - Some updates

S&P 500 under pressure, tapering fears getting permabulls a bit scared that the neverending stock fuel going to come to a close?

But even a retracement to the support zones in the daily & hourly charts suggest this would not lead to massive crash. (Being a perma-bear, ignoring reality and fundys; just charting.)
Daily chart:
1hour chart: Shows why today's levels were near a support zone. Looking to fade rallies into EMA/SMAs above (144/100) ~ 1675
NQ has similar theme of selling rallies from here on 1hr chart, but long-term support zones clear on daily:
Looking @ EMA/SMAs for selling on 1HR, targets 90d POC highlighted
Dow showing greater weakness than ES or NQ; low volume node (red arrow) and likely Fib retrace level 78% @ 14757 where last Inv. H&S resulted in quick rally to all time highs.
Russell was strongest & hit hardest today: TL support & HVAH would be support levels.

The 1HR chart shows good break of H&S pattern:

Big moves in treasuries are likely not over; cannot consider buying the lows, will eye pull backs to sharp TL for shorts - long term support levels @ 122'315
CL - Oil bulls were tested only 8 days ago, now will be watching test of highs for break out higher or reversal signals.
Wild action today, after weekly new highs, collapsed lower to Aug POC/moving avg levels, climbed right back during rest of afternoon. Same concept as above; watching for test of new highs. The one that got away was the Inv. H&S on Aug. 9 @ 104.5 area.
Nat Gas has been all over the show this year; very big ranges, nearly DB and pulled back quickly this week, looking to possibly fade rally into HVA @ 3.50 levels or naked monthly POC:
1HR shows a better reversion into value where selling should be valid around 3.50:

RB Gasoline - will watch closely for another RSI signal @ highs around the HVA in the 3.05 range; perfect sell signal in Feb.

No indication of oversold yet on 1hr, will be eyeing NPOC from July above daily target as key resistance.

HO - heating oil having some unusual activity from a seasonal perspective, following WTI/Brent higher.  

Daily resistance BO may be coming if WTI/Brent continue breaking higher. 
 GC - gold bulls back in form again.. likely to be horribly disappointed. I may dedicate a larger post, for the record on this one.
Daily chart, indicates 3 key levels of resistance, of swing highs $1425 & $1485, NPOC not far off from here @ $1383. The developing channel looks more a bear flag.

  The 1HR chart has nice confluence with June NPOC @ 90day POC being in same level.
Silver clearly under heavy short squeeze more so that gold. They move in similar fashion, so when silver's drop was more exaggerated, this comes as no surprise. Eyeing the LVN @ TL as major resistance.
HG - Copper could be the industrial metal that is poised for a big move to upside; while directly connected heavily to growth in China (which I am unconvinced is rebounding completely) the inv. H&S break out could be under way.
 HG 90d trading way above value; so longs would be optimal @ MA & Aug. POC levels.
 PL - platinum definitely broke out over TL, but is reaching key resistance zone of levels; LVN and HVAL should halt this run for a pullback, but 1yr POC could be in the cards if shorts continue to scramble.
The rising channel resistance is nearby as well.
PA - palladium is a jittery thing; three bull flag BOs all pretty good moves. Will eye for pull-backs to 1yr POC @ 734.

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