NEM

Without delving into the fundamental analysis yet, Newmont Mining may be an excellent play at current levels. I believe gold will come back into favor, possibly testing $2,000 an oz. in 2013. NEM as a miner should stand to benefit from that and it pays a nice 3% dividend while you wait for capital appreciation.

Big big picture. 3year weekly chart POC is much higher and we could be looking at a major base developing. I see this as excellent risk:reward opportunity over the course of the next 3 months to 1 year time frame.

The base developing on the 1 year chart also shows the basing triangle with a defined risk either @ 42.95 low or even 42.80 3 year low.

I first started eyeing this when RSI divergence emerged (yellow box). 90 day profile shows price is balancing around its POC ($45.24). I am looking for a pullback to December nPOC for an entry. October nPOC target (red box) would be in line w/ Weekly POC levels ~ $54 - $55 range.

I am even considering legging into a small (1/3rd size) position at these levels and adding @ December POC.


http://www.newmont.com/

Jan. 8

Been a while since I posted anything. Updates are sorely in need.

ES - Major New Year gap blast higher. (As are all index futures listed below). Very strong balancing range @ 90d VAH and Jan VA - 1459/1448. May be looking for an exhaustion spike higher to sell or breakout lower to sell. Not initiating longs at these levels. JBTFD extreme low @ 1yr POC or 90d POC 1403/1406 levels
NQ - same theme. POCs 2644/2651
YM - Trading @ 90d POC 13280, pull back to 1yr POC 12960 better level
TF - Above 52week highs. Nothing here except pullbacks to POC 823/821
ZN - Hints of reducing QE sent all I.R products lower. Bull flag channel developing on daily. http://screencast.com/t/xldNklb94DCu
ZB - Similar pattern as ZN, Closing in a 1yr VAL.
ZF - Very range bound between 1yr VAs
CL - Broke above 90d rising channel, still long-term triangle forming on daily chart. Aug monthly NPOC and highs definitely seem in range over $96 http://screencast.com/t/u8Td6aySrI
NG - Still young forming Jan VA balancing around 90d VAL
RB - Daily triangle suggesting breakout over 2.85
HO - Bull flag on daily; range bound on hourly between 2.98 & 3.06
GC - Major pullback intraday buying opportunity @ 61.8% Fib @ 1629; expect balancing between 1640 and 1675
SI - Similar pullback to gold; needs to break range between 29.5 & 31.5
HG - No opinion.
PL - No opinion
PA - Missed short region @ 712, 1yr VAH; Jan VAL/POC developing as support. Also 38.2% retrace from Oct rally.
6E - Major move off 1yr VAH. Dec. POC is pretty wide range bound region of 1.3155 - 1.3025.
6A - Very range bound in Jan w/ major collapse and pullback into VAs. Eyeing 1.0480 R level
6B - Major pulback from 52 week high. Jan profile balancing around 90d POC 1.6035, watching for dips.
6J - May have missed the ultimate dip. Looking for pullback to .00114
6C - Daily balancing range around POC; 1.0150 - 1.0003
6S - Balancing around Dec. POC
6M - After downgrade rumors, snapped back violently; profile and price action balancing around Dec/Jan POCs and VAH on hourly.
6N - Still major rising channel on daily. No opinion.
DX - Strong rally from 79. 121, No opinion.
ZC - Daily bull flag. No opinion.
ZW - No opinion.
ZS - 90d VAL could be developing as support. No opinion now.
ZL - No opinion.
ZM - No opinion.
ZO - Broke declining channel.. 1yr VAL next level @ 320\
SB - Potential inverse H&S on daily.

OJ - No opinion.
KC - Watching Dec VAL under 144.
CT - No opinion.
CC - Watching 1yr VAL @ 2211.
LE - Still hovering @ 1yr VAH. No opinion currently.
GF - No opinion.
HE - No opinion.
LBS - No opinion.
NKD - No opinion.

Dec. 28

Reloaded 6J long in evening session off S2 pivot. NF on target 1 @ PP.

Silver in a fairly tight balancing area. Considering a SLV Feb. 29 straddle @ $2.16, implying a 7% move in either direction.

Dec. 27 - 6J Long Idea, Silver, 6E, CT, HE updates.

Without any true indicators or levels of support, considering a long on 6J. Perhaps for just a scalp, but I believe that it has been heavily oversold the past several weeks, particularly the past few days. Could get a solid bounce to close the holiday gap. More QE from BOJ pressuring the currency.

 3yr, weekly chart VAL & swing low highlighted.

5:50 a.m. - Bidding .011665 for 1. May consider a leg-in trade. Not chasing @ current price .011670.
6:01 a.m. - Filled on 1. If stop placed @ recent swing low = 13t ($162.50) If only taking scalp target of swing high of .011691 = 26t trade ($325) - oe ON swing high .011706 = 41t ($512.50). Looking for .011655 for 2nd half of leg-in.
2 p.m. update: 2nd half filled. Took some serious heat. Opportunity on pop to bail b/e or + a couple ticks on both. Still long 2. Scalped 8t ($100) intra-day on TAT.

Would be a strong buyer of silver @ $28.00 levels. Breakout level from $26 low of year and June POC $28.35. Would also be confluence w/ 78% 'line in the sand' retracement level.

6E moving back into 1yr VAH level @ .13301. Would consider a short, but this could be the time it busts through as it is the third attempt.
2 p.m. update: never reached those entry levels. Flushed w/ ES intra-day.

Some serious flush on CT. Stop management poor on my part. Flat +414t ($2070.)

May have missed the HE short entry. (Entry @ 87.5 - arrow.)

Dec. 26

Still equity markets are riddled with the fiscal cliff uncertainty. Volume and participation, post-holiday, is very light. Thursday's economic data could lead to some activity; jobless claims @ 8:30 a.m., consumer confidence and new home sales @ 10 a.m.

Today's views:
ES - Dec. 90d POC @ 1412. Missed 'the dip' @ 1414.
NQ - Rangebound between Dec. VAH & VAL. May begin looking for uturn off VAL.
YM - No update
TF - Short still working out, bailed too soon. 1hr ATR stop still not violated. DT rejection near 90d VAH. Possible re-entry on rallies to 844.
ZN - No update. Finding range near 90d VAL & Dec. VAL
ZB - Looking for a pullback to 90d VAL ~ 146'20
ZF - Still rangebound between 1yr VAH & POC
CL - Rising channel on hourly; Wedge & trendline resist on 1yr. A short is tempting, but only against channel resist. A pullback to 90d POC (also 1yr POC) good possibility.

NG - No update. Strong channel on 1yr, pullback to Dec. VAL (3.27) is area of interest for longs.
RB - No update at these levels. 3.0426 1yr VAH of interest as resistance. (2.9148 on hourly)
HO - No update. 3.0678 first test of resist on hourly POC.
GC - 1630 = 61.8% retracement of May - Sep move. Only level of interest as price beginning to balance @ 50% retrace levels.
SI - 29.675 = 61.8% retrace - similar thoughts as gold.
HG - No update
PL - No update.
PA - Watching 701 levels as hourly VAH and multiple top levels.
6E - No update. 1.3300 1yr VAH, possible resist.
6A - 1.028 hourly VAH & swing low supt from Nov.
6B - No update.
6J - Falling knife; no update.
6C - No update.
6S - 1yr POC moved higher to 1.0916. VAH @ 1.1013... possible resist level.
6M - Flat. Continues lower; no update. Erratic looking price action during holiday trade session.
6N - No update.
DX - Bounced off Dec. VAL and holding @ Dec & 90d POCs.
ZC - No update.
ZW - No update.
ZS - Nov POC = 1411.5, a good level between that and 78.6% retrace of Nov - Dec rally between 1401 & 1411. (Last - 1417...)
ZL - No update.
ZM - No update.
ZO - Declining channel, looking to sell rallies.

SB - No update.
OJ - No update.
KC - No update. Two nice bounces off Dec. VAL. Will key in again at those levels ~ 144 - 143.
CT - Still long 1. Pushing thru 90d VAH testing some major swing peaks from Oct, Aug & June over 78. Rising channel still leaves a lot of upside on hourly.

CC - No update. Falling knife. Swing lows from Nov provided no support @ 2328

LE - 1hr VAH possible building balancing area. Shorts = high risk.

GF - No update.

HE - Similar pattern on /LE. 87.60 has been developing as possible DT & resist. zone. Also 61.8% retrace from Jun - Sep drop. 1yr POC = 85.80, which could be a good scalp target short term. Dec. hourly POC 85.50. On radar over next 2 days. Reversal signal fired while away from screen @ 87.5 Watching 2nd bar for entry tomorrow. 

LBS - No update. Screaming higher. High risk shorts against no R levels.

NKD - No update. Gapping higher on lower Yen (6J) - high risk shorts.

Futures List

Here is the list of futures contracts I will be following with daily updates:

/ES - E-mini S&P 500 Index
/NQ - E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index
/YM - Mini Dow Jones Industrials Average
/TF - Russell 2000 Index Mini-size
/ZN - 10 year US Treasury Note
/ZB - 30 year US Treasury Bond
/ZF - 5 year US Treasury Note
/CL - Light Sweet Crude Oil
/NG - Natural Gas
/RB - RBOB Gasoline
/HO - Heating Oil
/GC - Gold
/SI - Silver
/HG - Copper
/PL - Platinum
/PA - Palladium
/6E - Euro FX
/6A - Australian Dollar
/6B - British Pound
/6J - Japanese Yen
/6C - Candadian Dollar
/6S - Swiss Franc
/6M - Mexican Peso
/6N - New Zealand Dollar
/DX - US Dollar Index
/ZC - Corn
/ZW - Wheat
/ZS - Soybeans
/ZL - Soybean Oil
/ZM - Soybean Meal
/ZO - Oats
/SB - Sugar #11 (World)
/OJ - Frozen Concentrated OJ (FCOJ-A)
/KC - Coffee 'C'
/CT - Cotton #2
/CC - Cocoa
/LE - Live Cattle
/GF - Feeder Cattle
/HE - Lean Hog
/LBS - Random Length Lumber
/NKD - Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index

Dec. 20 - 6M short

Managed to get 1 part of leg in on 6M short.

Triple top formed below 1yr VAH and could not penetrate old swing highs from Oct. 5.

On hourly chart, 90day VAH level a good place to leg in on 1 lot @ .07790, was offering 2nd (now cancelled) higher at Dec. VAH .07810 +28t $350 as of 5a.m. Trading near 90d POC.

Flat +32ticks, +$400. No runner to let it continue. Price continued to 50% retracement levels nearly.